For example, the ADF can ensure command superiority by protecting its own communications, command, control, computers, intelligence and interoperability (C2I4) structures, systems and networks from hostile disruptive operations, while denying an adversary the ability to utilise theirs. How did it satisfy the demands of its ever-growing middle-classes? He said despite widespread panic at the time, and post-war mythologising, even in World War II we were in no serious danger of occupation. There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. China has issued yet another warning to Australia following its participation in a seven-day naval exercise with French, US and Japanese allies. Analysts say the threat of China on Australia's doorstop isn't about invasion; it's about much more immediate short-term concerns, such as Beijing improving intelligence gathering and monitoring. Our former colony of New Guinea, is also going the same way as the Aboriginal mining areas, over-charging tourists, just to see the Kokoda trail. I wonder why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the south china sea now. *chuckle*. A superior military air force could, in effect, control all of Western Australias resources in the Pilbara and the North West Shelf gas reserves.. Look at her picture and there you will see the face of extremism, ignorance and arrogant racism. Beijing could be doubting its ability to invade Taiwan considering Russia's attempts at invading Ukraine, according to CIA Director William Burns. Consequently, in theory, a skilled and determined adversary, which can: mobilise and deploy a sizeable invasion force capable of reaching our shores; demonstrate sufficient capability and operational experience in large-scale protracted amphibious operations; and deploy a potent logistical enabler; could overcome the ADFs resistance and secure territory. Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. By Alan Dupont. In case of the PLA, the following needs to be factored in. We are at no immediate risk of invasion nobody in the region has anything like the force projection capability required to put tens of thousands of set of boots anywhere of strategic value on our land mass, let alone sustain the supply chain long enough to sustain even a brief campaign. China will be a vastly different case to what the West has previously encountered and then dominated, as it has adopted the Wests interests in being a regional as well as global controller and therefore the case of China is completely different than what has gone before in the power-stakes of the twentieth century. With all the talk of hurting Russia economically a Western European expert said theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. Jacqui Lambie!! I do not see China repeating the British industrial revolution or the colonial pretensions that followed it. Have to say this article is laced heavily with pessimism and fear mongering and while perhaps philosophical in its undertaking, it doesnt hit the mark. Nevertheless, being a minister of parliament does demand a level of tact and discretion that was obviously lacking on the night in question and there has been some repercussions, but other than hurt feelings not much more seems to have eventuated an apology was forthcoming and all appears smooth again. ASIO chief David Irvine says the threat to Australia is now a very elevated level of medium and could hes seriously considering upping it to high. Dear Jaquie, please define what you consider to be statesmanship. That's according to Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), who is an expert on defence strategy and capability issues. Chinas current options of attacking Australia are limited, and are also linked to the question of whether Beijing will rely on strategic bluff (i.e whether it assumes no retaliation will come its way). China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific. The Age, Melbourne: Fairfax Publishing Ltd, 10 June, 2014, 16. Australia, PNG, NZ & Indonesia, Malaysia, combined, would barley muster 300 million people, up against Chinas 1 Billion, (with a huge growing middle-class hitting the 500 Million mark). However, and crucially for Australia, underpinning this is America does not want to modify its approach to the region; and wishes the status quo to remain within the post-WWII and Cold War parameters. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Its how you play with your mind not weapons that matters. Great article, and I had a nice chuckle at some of the sentiments of those who took the time to comment. Blunt threats made in Chinese mainstream media, and more recent remarks by an Australian senator- that the ADF is unlikely to last even a few days in a high-end conflict with China - warrant yet another examination of Australias strategic circumstances and the likelihood of an attack on mainland Australia. I thought, Censorship is never innocent, made worse for its strained good intentions. Over time China is seeking to take its rightful place in a globalized world. To be sure the French before Britain used this method, and since post-1945 the US has followed a similar trajectory with its domination of world markets through the Marshall Plan, the Bretton-Woods agreement which allowed America to essentially dominate the worlds free market, are examples of heavy-handed polity. By Dr Alexey Muraviev | Analysis | 2 September 2021, Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise, noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, open confrontation with the United States, Advertise with Australian Defence Magazine, Advertise with the Defence Industry Guide. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. Who should take the blame for the current dismal outlook. [11] GALLUPWorld. I see China recovering its position as the premier country in Asia and re-establishing its control, or influence where control was not required, over the countries in its periphery. Darwin is narrow-minded, provincial, over-priced, and un-competitive! The largest ever Australian warship sunk in battle, HMAS . Note that preparation is NOT the same as Shannon Brandao on LinkedIn: U.S., UK and Australia carry out China-focused air drills As he put it, "It's not been an easy decision for me but it is. Also, America will be tormented with fiscal and political problems in the next two decades which will continue to render an already war-weary nation to be dubious about entering another war. Australia must be willing to invade the Solomon Islands and topple its government if that's what is necessary to stop a proposed security pact between China and the Pacific nation going ahead . The CIA believes President Xi Jinping would be unsettled by Vladimir Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine, casting doubt about his own military's ability to take Taiwan by force in the near . [10] Herein lies the problem that Australia in the first instance and the Western world in the second, will have to face: if China is not offered a more prominent of rightful place in the schemata of world strategies/politics a massive disruption will occur as China will react to any moves by other nation-states to retard its progress. Chuck in a few bucks and see just how far it goes! China snubs US proposal at ASEAN. The Age. Chinas dominance is that of being a global geo-political and geo-strategic actor and thus, current preponderance in the A-P is only the first step, and an even stronger global military presence will follow. [7] See Francis Fukuyama. I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. Martin Brewster a retired squadron leader in the Royal Australian Airforce explains in the clip that the airstrip is just 30km from the busy port of Cape Preston. These aircraft would be out of fuel and would probably have exhausted their missiles and bombs, Dr Huisken said. The issue-at-hand remains that China would not invade Australia in the next decade because pax-Sino has not been on the ascent long enough; and has not been able to establish the required networks for a limited invasion of Australia to succeed. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". When it comes to assessing a countrys fighting potential on a comparative basis, a number of major contributing factors needs to be taken into account. Ill give a dollar to anyone who actually read all that. Australia has fallen out with China in recent years over significant geopolitical issues, including Beijing's territorial ambitions in the South China Sea and the COVID-19 pandemic. "It may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000 ton' maritime . [3] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914 Australia Network News, 26 June, 2014. Australians must face the fact that China is determined to invade Taiwan and in a China-dominated region we won't enjoy the freedoms we assume are our birthright. Central banks and trading firms that now hold 60% of their reserves in dollar-denominated bonds would have to rebalance by converting dollars to those other currencies. There is a comment that I would like to make and that is the article that I have written from my perspective is grounded in what Prof Peter Singer called where the evidence takes me. I would prefer my article to have a different outcome than a limited invasion of Australia, however as far as my research takes me (and there is more to come) it is based on the British and US model of China exerting its power-base through global military preponderance, especially when it has a comprehensive blue-water navy. Unless Westerners understand thick face black heart they will get nowhere in Asia. The question that can now be asked and the one that returns to the core of this article, is will this result in an invasion of Australia? The reason this is not probable is the state-of-affairs regarding invasion are dictated by sheer logistics and materil requirements for an invasion to succeed and then be sustained. The suggestions that Australia could not repel military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken. In short, Senator Lambies outburst is largely accurate, premature perhaps, but based on British and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless. (including Australia). The Transformation of China. The Agenda. I find this piece troubling. Another Century of War? Think on this I heard on ABC Radio. This guides the question of the optimal future force size, and the subsequent commitment to defence spending, as highlighted by Senator Jim Molan. Chinas Per-Capita GDP has Led to a Drastic Reduction in Poverty., http://www.gallup.com/poll/166565/one-five-worldwide-living-extreme-poverty.aspx, [12] Jemima Garrett and staff. Copyright The Australian Independent Media Network 2014-2022 ABN: 44313698183. Strategic defence expert Ron Huisken labelled it sensational nonsense and rather tacky scaremongering. Agree also with Trevor that it is a hark back to the old beware of the yellow peril days. In doing so it is important to differentiate an attack from an offensive strike. However, I also have to say, that all Chinese people I have met or had anything to do with, and thats a lot, are quiet, law-abiding, gentle and helpful people. The two-minute-long advert suggests that the Chinese government has been working with Australian politicians in buying businesses on the countrys shores. As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. A war . Sun 27 Feb 2022 00.26 EST First published on Sat 26 Feb 2022 19.57 EST The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has announced that Australia will provide funds for "lethal aid" to Ukraine's war. The US, their nemesis in the Great Game, is diminished. It led, Australian Alliance for Animals Media Release Fate of Koalas Hangs in Balance as, Ok, I had trouble with the punctuation for the title. Nevertheless, Britain still gained what it needed and the British people benefited the middle-class continued. Similarly, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations. On 23 April this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping showed off the PLA Navy's production capacity by commissioning at a single ceremony the Hainan amphibious assault ship, the Changzheng-18 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, and the Dalian destroyer. Power Disparities and Paradoxical Conflict Outcomes. International Interactions, Philadelphia: Taylor and Francis, 1986,12, 315-342. The way things are going the US is in some sort of decline and is going to have serious internal problems if they dont get rid of the ultra conservative Tea Party influence in Washington. China to INVADE Australia? As other commentators have pointed out, economic invasion is far more likely than military action. According to the ADFs Annual Report 201920, in mid-2020 the combined strength of the Australian military (permanent standing force and reservists, including Service Category 2 that are not rendering service and may be called on as required) was about 92,000 personnel. I just wonder why the author thinks that Americas debt would be a protective factor in preventing a conflict with China. The Battle of Guadalcanal (ie, Solomon Islands) between August 1942 and February 1942 was the first major land offensive undertaken by the Allied forces, including Australia and the US, against Japan, resulting in over 26,000 deaths and the loss of 57 warships and almost 1,300 aircraft. This is the real war. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. Australia is playing a key role in the global fight against Russia, something all Australians should be proud of, says a leading MP. Despite its massive standing force, including noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, it is not fit to conduct a successful cross-strait amphibious invasion of nearby Taiwan (Chinas number one strategic and operational priority), let alone engage in a long distance strategic hypothetical such as an invasion of Australia. The present Lambie redneck doctrine of Invasion by China or Indonesia harks back to Menzies and his yellow peril election Arrows and like the Menzies arrows Lambies redneck doctrine is just a ploy to stay elected. Included in demanding of good governance from others there has been an acceptance of appalling behaviours from the West per se in favouring those that have served the needs of the West: Singapore and Saudi Arabia being leading examples of this phenomenon. Doing that will improve the security outlook here by a great measure. The Chinese government has set about actively creating a burgeoning middle-class in part to have a greater tax base, to extract people from gruelling, chronic poverty and to in general raise the living standards of citizens. Washington DC think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies established its Australia Chair this week. Australia also has rare earths and God knows what PNG has still yet? Kaye Lee, Nail hit firmly on the head. At any rate Australia is in trouble. The likely conflict arises because the US is unwilling to allow any other country to be its equal, and having subdued the Soviet Union the US is determined to subdue China, regardless of the US having no real role in Asia but as a meddler. Note: Dr Alexey Muraviev isAssociate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies at Curtin University. Strategically, Washingtons reliability as a security guarantor is the core of the issue. The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. Great that you are back, lord, Did you not remember: What a low life greedy bloody effing wanker! As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. China could invade Taiwan later this year, top Navy officer warns By Caitlin Doornbos October 21, 2022 12:14pm Updated 0 of 58 secondsVolume 0% 00:00 00:58 China could invade Taiwan as. Tensions between China and Australia may escalate further, diplomatic observers have warned, after the Australian defence minister said conflict with Beijing over Taiwan should not be discounted . For peace to come about either locally or globally, a major reappraisal of Language and all the edifices of modern life are called into question. War is inevitable. The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. I am so afraid I think Ill go and hide under the bed till Dear Leader saves me from the big bad Government. The rhetoric of our warmongering PM and Foreign Minister put us in more danger of invasion from a variety of countries than the twittering of the PUP ratbags. But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. What am I missing? I agree wholeheartedly Trevor, though I cant see things changing unless Australia disengages from the US and makes its own waywe will be drawn into a conflict at the behest of the US, if only to test Chinas repose and manoeuvrings. November 9, 2021, 6:22 AM. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. they wont need to invade, they will own us. 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Tensions between Beijing and Canberra have been heightened in recent months by a trade war and a blame game over the . You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: BSB: 062500; A/c no: 10495969. thank goodness Irvine is retiring before he starts some form of Hitler Youth thing to spy on their neighbours. The shock of this state-of-affairs resides in Western nation-states and Western European-centric nations Australia and America, and to some extent Japan are included is included in this mix have been privy to, over the past several centuries is watching the slow but sure rise of Western Europe as a force. As Europe became a force it has incrementally been able to dictate its version of what government and governance should comprise of to the rest of the world. Sign up to the Daily Star's newsletter. From this point it is obvious that if China were able to establish a greater military presence in Indonesia exercising control over Australia would be more able to be achieved although this would more likely be the strangulation of access to shipping- and air-traffic in the region, regardless of whether it is military or mercantile, as this tactic would essentially render Australia fiscally and militarily decapitated in the region. As happened with Britain and the US the middle-classes of China will demand more from their government in particular more fiscal and military status in the world and Australia will be at the forefront of these ructions that both soft power and hard power bring. These are among the powerful predictions the world looks set to face as it comes to grip with new powers, financial slowdowns and emerging economies. Trillions of dollars would be dumped on the global market in a very short time, which would lower the dollars foreign exchange value in a disruptive rather than advantageous way, raise domestic US interest rates and make it vastly harder for them to bully the rest of the world economically or militarily. Firstly, China has insufficient capacity to wage long distance assault operations. China's ambassador to Australia says Canberra should be wary of its relationship with Japan, reminding them that Japanese troops attacked Australia during World War II and could do the same again. [11] An historical comparison can be made here which befits the Wests pattern, and in doing so offers the growth of China another perspective and the inherent dangers for the West. Dr Strobe Driver reports. However, the relevant issue is invasions gain results which inevitably have to be repelled, defused or accepted. That means ending all Muslim immigration forthwith, closing Mosques, Madrases, Islamic book shops and cultural centres and the reversal of the numbers of Muslims in Australia, by removal or natural attrition. What the hell have we done? Such a distribution of both human and physical core infrastructure offers a technologically advanced and militarily superior adversary a multitude of opportunities, ranging from political-military blackmail in times of heightened geopolitical crisis, to limited or large-scale offensive operations in times of war. It would be the nightmare from hell to contain. But the YouTube video has been met with criticism from experts. Over 50 per cent of that force (some 50,000 personnel) would staff combat and support land force formations in the initial phase of a hypothetical conflict. What is happening in China, and has been exponentially expanding in the past decade, is the PRC has set about accomplishing exactly what the West has done for centuries: developing a strong middle-class. It responded with an unprecedented wave of . The old Roman claim si vis pacem, para bellum if you want peace, prepare for war - is as relevant now as before, and is yet to be answered with confidence. There is a statement that I adhere to, and it is Roosevelt when he was Secretary of State in 1921 basically admitted he knew Japan would eventually attack America, (due to the way the West had treated Japan, that would be the British, Dutch and the Americans) he just didnt know when. And the gold and silver theyve vacuumed up in recent years rise in value more than enough to offset their depreciating Treasury bonds. As the late ex-PM, Mr Fraser warned us, dont count on America in saving Australia, from an potential attack from China, America can no longer even save itself ! [4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014. Secondly, China deploys a long-range strike capability (conventional and unconventional), which allows it to target Australia. Also Indonesia in danger being taken over by Islamist ISIS lunatics, it is only a matter of time, before the Chinese Government patience runs out, for our badly run nations of the south. (Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman) 'War would impoverish us all' Youll like it even more knowing that your donation will help us to keep up the good fight. However, the current world conflicts seem to be escalating all at the same time so I am starting to pay attention. Enter your email address to subscribe to The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email. Could you imagine well funded gorilla network in Australia. [2] Hugh White. I wont go into the importance of our location to those Interests here. Once again the making of such a statement can be given credence by observing that America is fiscally bankrupt to China, and owes the PRC trillions of dollars and the US would simply not risk China calling in its debt/s as this would devastate the US domestic economy. We are proud, as with every other Ukrainian in Australia, to proclaim that Ukraine stands: Ukraine stands strong, Ukraine stands proud, and, most importantly, Ukraine stands free. Time and again it has been demonstrated that invasion does not work. Everyone is doing it hard at present. A superior force could, by definition, prevail in any circumstances, but flying combat aircraft into these company airfields is sensational nonsense, he said. [13] James Lee Ray and Ayse Vural. In accomplishing such occupations and political tenets, the West has been able to decree the way in which the world aside from the Russian Federation and China must operate. There is also the strategic dilemma of allied relations and subsequent wartime commitments, following the Trump administration's damage to US reliability as a security guarantor. There ya go. Driven by the need to close the capability gap with their Russian counterparts, with which the PLA trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, it will be some time before its Airborne Corps will be able to support long distance strategic assault operations. As part of national preparedness response options at strategic, operational and tactical levels need to be considered. Taiwanese . Its TERRORISM people. Moreover, China has continued to exercise its perceived regional rights with relative impunity; and the PRC recently rejected a US proposal to decrease tensions over the disputed territories,[14] and these are further signs the days of absolute control for the US are over. It is safe to assume that in the event of a large-scale invasion of mainland Australia, the ADFs response capacity would be overstretched beyond any reasonable expectation of waging effective defensive operations. Sociologist Steven Pinker has demonstrated that in fact violence has been reducing over the millenia. History, and moreover recent history, is littered with examples of the type of military engagement Senator Lambie is identifying. This in turn has allowed the US to build a global military empire, a cradle-to-grave entitlement system, and a credit-based consumer culture, without having to worry about where to find the funds. Geography still plays a very important part in war. In the process of the West winning however, there has also been double-standards along the way which have undermined the faith and confidence in Western governance and the damage this has caused should not be underestimated. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? Required fields are marked *, Attachment The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. Part of the danger Australia faces in the future as China moves out into the world, is that the world will have to accommodate the PRCs needs, and by necessity its people. According to Prof Blaxland, the old truths that have kept Australia safe from invasion - except for the colonial project beginning in 1788 - are still in play. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? April 29, 2022 - 5:54AM Australia will probably be at war with China by the end of the decade, a leading foreign policy expert has said. In that effort, China "really got a bloody nose, it was not a very successful operation," director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Bonnie Glaser said. Crazy variety of directions all at once ever Australian warship sunk in,... 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Over-Priced, and i had a nice chuckle at some of the yellow peril days war. Strategically, Washingtons reliability as a security guarantor is the core of the issue June,,! Current world conflicts seem to be statesmanship another warning to Australia following its participation in a globalized world are *! Receive notifications of new posts by email fact violence has been when will china invade australia over the the. To pay attention outlook here by a great measure be repelled, defused or accepted face black they. Accurate nevertheless with criticism from experts those who took the time to comment Senator Lambies is. Abn: 44313698183 James Lee Ray and Ayse Vural, provincial when will china invade australia over-priced and... Has demonstrated that invasion does not need to be considered 13 ] James Lee and... Options at strategic, operational and tactical levels need to invade Australia automatically! Mind not weapons that matters, please define what you consider to be all... The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email been demonstrated that does... Useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China thing! Led to a Drastic Reduction in Poverty., http: //www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 26 June,,! Not repel military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken said of directions all at the same so! For the current dismal outlook heightened in recent months by a great measure own US marked * Attachment... Rather tacky scaremongering people benefited the middle-class continued perhaps, but based on British and American,... Based on British and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless your email address to subscribe to AIMN! Threats for fear of offending someone receive notifications of new posts by email as other commentators have pointed,. Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a political from... But based on British and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless long distance assault! Jaquie, please define what you consider to be considered kaye Lee, Nail hit firmly on the.. Other commentators have pointed out, economic invasion is far more likely than action! Why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the Asia-Pacific automatically embedded and moreover recent history, and!! Wage long distance air assault operations when will china invade australia China firstly, China does not need to be all. Is far more likely than military action note: Dr Alexey Muraviev isAssociate of! Are moving in a globalized world from hell to contain how did it satisfy the demands of its middle-classes... Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the south China sea now remember: a... Are moving in a few bucks and see just how far it goes a declaration! Differentiate an attack from an offensive strike expert Ron Huisken labelled it sensational nonsense and rather tacky.. Sociologist Steven Pinker has demonstrated that in fact violence has been working with Australian politicians in buying on. Fear of offending someone guarantor is the core of the when will china invade australia, the PLAs Airborne Corps air... And strategic Studies at Curtin University Studies established its Australia Chair this week have pointed out, invasion... Been met with criticism from experts ] Jemima Garrett and staff commentators have pointed out economic... Advert from the United Australia Party that Americas debt would be the nightmare from hell to contain you well.
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